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POLITICO's Live 2016 Nebraska Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 25 points statewide in 2016 while winning the 2nd district by about 2%. Send us an email. Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.

at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt, Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College, Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College, McMullin wins at least one electoral vote, Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012, Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012. Here are the polls we added in each update. Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation Historical Elections 2020 Democratic Primary 2020 Republican Primary 2016 Presidential Election Results. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. Download CSV of polls. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. 2016 Election Forecast. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. So far we’ve collected 4,208 state and national polls. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2, Chance of winning New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes, Chance of winning Oregon’s 7 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Oregon Senate race between Ron Wyden and Mark Callahan », Chance of winning Texas’s 38 electoral votes, Chance of winning Alaska’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Alaska Senate race between Lisa Murkowski and Ray Metcalfe », Chance of winning Rhode Island’s 4 electoral votes, Chance of winning Illinois’s 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Illinois Senate race between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth », Chance of winning South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the South Carolina Senate race between Tim Scott and Thomas Dixon », Chance of winning Connecticut’s 7 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Connecticut Senate race between Richard Blumenthal and Dan Carter », Chance of winning Delaware’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning South Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the South Dakota Senate race between Jay Williams and John Thune », Chance of winning Utah’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Utah Senate race between Mike Lee and Misty Snow », Chance of winning Kansas’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Kansas Senate race between Jerry Moran and Patrick Wiesner », Chance of winning New York’s 29 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the New York Senate race between Chuck Schumer and Wendy Long », Chance of winning Montana’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning Washington’s 12 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Washington Senate race between Patty Murray and Chris Vance », Chance of winning Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes, Chance of winning Vermont’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Vermont Senate race between Patrick Leahy and Scott Milne », Chance of winning Nebraska’s 2 statewide electoral votes*, *Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district.

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