Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89, a deep through of −54,000 in 1992-93, and another high level in 2017-18 at 87,000. This map includes the following census divisions: Return to Map of Ontario Census Divisions. By looking at whether the lines fall at the ends of the coloured bars (which would indicate no difference), we can identify where there are differences in the age of the population between Simcoe Muskoka (coloured bars) and Ontario (black lines) in 2016. We see there are bars of equal length on both sides of the pyramid; this indicates that the sex ratio is balanced among males and females. Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 15% and 30% include: Elgin, Huron, Bruce, Perth, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hastings, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara, Toronto, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Haliburton, Peterborough, Northumberland, Frontenac, Lanark, Prescott & Russell. Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. In 2016, the population of Simcoe Muskoka was older than Ontario’s overall population. Users can explore the most recent COVID-19 data by public health unit, age group, sex, and view trends over time. Mortality In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.80 children per woman by the end of the period.

The most recent data for census divisions (2017) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.02 in Huron to a low of 1.26 in Toronto. The median age for women climbs from 41.7 to 44.1 years over the projection period, while for men it is projected to increase from 39.1 to 41.5 years. Canada's population clock (real-time model) This population clock models, in real time, changes to the size of the Canadian population and the provinces and territories..

By comparison, in Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, there were about 56 centenarians per 100,000 population in May 2018.Note 12, The main population aging indicators are all higher for females.
The current opioid crisis and the pandemic will have significant negative impacts on the pace of life expectancy improvement in the short term. This is reflected in both the median and average age. Conversely, the Prairie provinces now top the list of the youngest provinces. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2019) distributed by age and sex. This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2019 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Fill out our feedback form to let us know.

In the low-growth scenario, population increases 14.3  per cent, or 2.1 million, to reach over 16.6 million people by 2046. The data presented cover the period from 1971 to the most recent year. These mortality levels create a persistent, yet narrowing gap in life expectancy in favour of females.
Youth Dependency Ratio Definition: population ages 0-15 divided by the population ages 16-64. Explanatory notes for the tables © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2018. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated. Table 8 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group. From a rate of 1.7 per cent last year (2018–19), the pace of annual growth of the provincial population is projected to decrease to 1.3 per cent in 2019–20 and 1.2 per cent in 2020–21, before rising to 1.4 per cent in 2021–22. Population Projections 2030, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, IntelliHEALTH ONTARIO, Date Extracted: June 8, 2018.

The resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 2.8 per cent in 2019–20 to 2.0 per cent by 2045–46. Lastly, 54.9% of interprovincial migrants were aged 20 to 44. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. This under-estimation can help explain the difference between population growth as measured by Census enumerations adjusted for net under-coverage and estimated population growth by Statistics Canada over the same period. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at −7,000 for 2019-20 and at −5,000 for the rest of the projections. The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2019 to 2.8 million by 2046. A higher fertility rate in Canada than in these countriesNote 5 is the main reason why Canada has a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years.Note 6 However, the proportion of children is lower in Canada than in the United States (19%), France and the United Kingdom (18% each), where the fertility rate is higher than in Canada, though below the replacement level in the last decade. The District of Muskoka appears to have an older population (median age: 51.3 years, average age: 47.1 years) compared to Simcoe County (median age: 43.1 years, average age: 41.8 years) and Ontario (median age: 41.3 years and average age: 41.0 years). De facto population as of 1 July of the year indicated classified by five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 95-99, 100+) (Data are presented in thousands) (accessed on January 11, 2019). In other words, there were an additional 385,487 people in the 65-and-older age group than in the 0-to-14 group. On July 1, 2018, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population was estimated at 98.6 males per 100 females. Dependency on the Working-Age Population . In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at −7,000 for 2019–20 and becomes This represents total life expectancy gains of 5.2 years for males and 3.8 years for females between 2017 and 2046. Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2019-20, but negative by 2030-31 include: Rainy River, Elgin, Perth, Prescott & Russell. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people per cohort at ages 95+. Since 1978, the demographic dependency ratio has remained below 50, at a relatively stable level, because the majority of baby boomers have been of working age. In 2031, the last of the baby boomers will have turned 65. A majority of non-permanent residents (61.0%) were between 18 and 29 years of age. This is followed by a slight narrowing of the pyramid to about 90,000 each for males and females at ages around 40, and a peak around 110,000 at mid-50s ages. A similar situation was noted in Yukon (40.1) and the Northwest Territories (39.5).

Positive cycles occurred during the early 1980s and the late 1990s. Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in a considerable increase in the number of births until the mid-2020s. Now watch the Simcoe Muskoka population pyramid change from being wide in the middle in 2000 to increasingly top heavy by 2041—this indicates that we live in an aging society. Census divisions with between 70% and 100% projected growth in number of seniors over 2019-2046 include: Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Simcoe, Durham, Lanark, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell. Also by 2041, the pyramid shape changes to resemble a rectangle. By 2046, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 20.4 per cent while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 8.5 per cent. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the proportion of people 65 and older should continue to grow, increasingly widening the gap with the proportion of children aged 0 to 14.Note 8 The proportion of people aged 65 and older should reach 20% in 2024 and 25% in 2055, while the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 should remain stable at around 15% to 16% over the same period. Related products. This interactive dashboard allows the visualization of the age and sex structure of the population of Canada, provinces and territories. On July 1, 1998, baby boomers were in their 30s, 40s and early 50s, as can be seen in the bulge in the pyramid at these ages. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see population growth of 7,000 or 1.2 per cent, from 568,000 to 575,000. Elements of the life table, Canada, provinces and territories, annual (number), 1980/1982 to 2014/2016, Table 13-10-01114-01 (accessed on November 8, 2018). In the low scenario, the net gain goes down to 9,000 by 2024-25, and then rises slowly to reach 11,000 by the end of the projection period. This table displays the results of Pyramid table 2. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. ISBN 978–1–4868–4682–5 (HTML), Reference, low and high-growth scenarios This ratio has changed very little over the last 20 years, with 98.0 males per 100 females observed in 1998. This gap widens at more advanced ages: in the 65-to-79 age group, there were an estimated 91.8 males per 100 females on July 1, 2018. The estimate for centenarians in 2018 was 21.6 males per 100 females. “Fertility: Overview, 2012 to 2016.” Statistics Canada Catalogue no. The population pyramid chart below depicts the age and sex distribution of the populations of Simcoe Muskoka and Ontario for the year 2016. As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. The. By 2046, life expectancy is projected to reach 85.5 years for males and 88.2 years for females. All regions are projected to see a continuing shift to an older age composition of their population. This indicates that Simcoe and, particularly, Muskoka had an older population than Ontario in 2016.

On July 1, 2018, New Brunswick had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (20.8%) among the provinces, and Alberta the lowest (12.8%). In the last annual period, the difference between the number of people in these two age groups increased.

It is thought that under-estimation of emigration is part of the explanation. Perhaps the most striking difference is among seniors 65 years and older; in 2015, the senior population accounted for 18% (or just over 99,100) of the total population; this age group is expected to increase to 30% of the total population in 2041. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 85 per cent in 2018–19 and as low as 53 per cent in 2014–15. As baby boomers continue to turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15–64 slows until 2027–28 and then accelerates slightly over the remainder of the projection. This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario’s population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2046 period. COVID-19 and social support for seniors: Do seniors have people they can depend on during difficult times? When people reach their early-60s, the number of men starts to fall significantly below the number of women because of excess mortality among males. These differences are mainly due to the fact that women, at all ages, have lower mortality levels than men. In the short-term, the growth of Ontario’s population is projected to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through both the disruptions to migration flows resulting from the travel restrictions and the associated higher mortality. Largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, natural increase is projected to decline slightly to 33,900 in 2019–20, from 36,600 in 2018–19. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 18.1 per cent in Peel to 43.4 per cent in Prince Edward.

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