The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. Chance of winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Pennsylvania Senate race between Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty », Chance of winning Michigan’s 16 electoral votes, Chance of winning North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the North Carolina Senate race between Richard Burr and Deborah Ross », Chance of winning Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, Chance of winning Colorado’s 9 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Colorado Senate race between Michael Bennet and Darryl Glenn », Chance of winning Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Ohio Senate race between Rob Portman and Ted Strickland », Chance of winning Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Wisconsin Senate race between Ron Johnson and Russ Feingold », Chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, Chance of winning Nevada’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Nevada Senate race between Catherine Cortez Masto and Joe Heck », Chance of winning Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Arizona Senate race between John McCain and Ann Kirkpatrick », Chance of winning New Mexico’s 5 electoral votes, Chance of winning New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the New Hampshire Senate race between Kelly Ayotte and Maggie Hassan », Chance of winning Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Georgia Senate race between Johnny Isakson and Jim Barksdale », Chance of winning Iowa’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Iowa Senate race between Chuck Grassley and Patty Judge », Chance of winning Maine’s 2 statewide electoral votes*, *Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district.
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes. Chance of winning Florida’s 29 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Florida Senate race between Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy ». Send us an email. View the results of 2020 election polls from Nebraska. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. A new Democratic poll shows presidential nominee Joe Biden with a hefty lead over President Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and Democrat Kara Eastman holding a … POLITICO's Live 2016 Nebraska Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression. We’re forecasting the election with three models, What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8, Who would win the election if it were held today. Includes Races for President, Senate, House, Governor and Key Ballot Measures. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. 2016 Election Forecast. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. Send us an email. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently. Includes 2016 Races for President, Senate, House, Governor and Key Ballot Measures. Senate ... 2 nd Congressional District ^ Source Date Sample Biden Notice any bugs or missing polls? A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote.

Download CSV of polls. President Obama won NE-02 in 2008 while losing the state, and President Trump won Maine’s 2nd District and lost the state in 2016 in an inverse situation. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2, Chance of winning New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes, Chance of winning Oregon’s 7 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Oregon Senate race between Ron Wyden and Mark Callahan », Chance of winning Texas’s 38 electoral votes, Chance of winning Alaska’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Alaska Senate race between Lisa Murkowski and Ray Metcalfe », Chance of winning Rhode Island’s 4 electoral votes, Chance of winning Illinois’s 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Illinois Senate race between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth », Chance of winning South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the South Carolina Senate race between Tim Scott and Thomas Dixon », Chance of winning Connecticut’s 7 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Connecticut Senate race between Richard Blumenthal and Dan Carter », Chance of winning Delaware’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning South Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the South Dakota Senate race between Jay Williams and John Thune », Chance of winning Utah’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Utah Senate race between Mike Lee and Misty Snow », Chance of winning Kansas’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Kansas Senate race between Jerry Moran and Patrick Wiesner », Chance of winning New York’s 29 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the New York Senate race between Chuck Schumer and Wendy Long », Chance of winning Montana’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning Washington’s 12 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Washington Senate race between Patty Murray and Chris Vance », Chance of winning Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes, Chance of winning Vermont’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Vermont Senate race between Patrick Leahy and Scott Milne », Chance of winning Nebraska’s 2 statewide electoral votes*, *Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3, Chance of winning Hawaii’s 4 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Hawaii Senate race between Brian Schatz and John Carroll », Chance of winning California’s 55 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the California Senate race between Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez », Chance of winning Mississippi’s 6 electoral votes, Chance of winning Missouri’s 10 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Missouri Senate race between Roy Blunt and Jason Kander », Chance of winning Indiana’s 11 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Indiana Senate race between Evan Bayh and Todd Young », Chance of winning Louisiana’s 8 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Louisiana Senate race », Chance of winning Massachusetts’s 11 electoral votes, Chance of winning West Virginia’s 5 electoral votes, Chance of winning Wyoming’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning Idaho’s 4 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Idaho Senate race between Mike Crapo and Jerry Sturgill », Chance of winning North Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the North Dakota Senate race between John Hoeven and Eliot Glassheim », Chance of winning Arkansas’s 6 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Arkansas Senate race between John Boozman and Conner Eldridge », Chance of winning Maryland’s 10 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Maryland Senate race between Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga », Chance of winning Kentucky’s 8 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Kentucky Senate race between Rand Paul and Jim Gray », Chance of winning Alabama’s 9 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Alabama Senate race between Richard Shelby and Ron Crumpton », Chance of winning District of Columbia’s 3 electoral votes, Chance of winning Oklahoma’s 7 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for the Oklahoma Senate race between James Lankford and Mike Workman ».

Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner. Here are the expected margins of victory.
There are plausible electoral maps—for example, taking the 2016 outcome and giving Biden Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, but not Pennsylvania—where the entire presidential election comes down to the result in NE-02. So far we’ve collected 4,208 state and national polls. Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. Have thoughts on our forecast? Sign up. Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House.

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8. Have thoughts on our forecast? Nebraska 2nd District predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

... *Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation Historical Elections 2020 Democratic Primary 2020 Republican Primary 2016 Presidential Election Results.

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