But why did Lowry receive better run support if the same guys are hitting behind him? Using this definition of “fluke start,” Cain was “robbed” of three potential easy wins—receiving two losses and one no-decision—compared to zero stolen wins for Lowry. Lowry’s defense actually made more scoreboard-affecting errors than Cain’s. Ducks History, Luck, and … Maarty Leunen! J.J Hickson: Apologies for the Conspicuous Lack of Stripper References in Article. Pool/Getty Images. They are currently tied with 104 career wins. This one isn’t going to be as pretty as it could have been because of the last five seasons. To get the full benefits of numberFire, please log in. to pass Juan Marichal, but you can see where he got the nickname “The Horse.” He was so danged consistent and reliable for years. I’m working on the feelin’ post, but I also thought a quick statistical rundown of where he ranks in San Francisco Giants history would be appropriate.

Cain’s counterparts averaged a collective 4.39 ERA on the season (as of 9/24/07) while Lowry’s averaged 4.56. When the 2013 season started, he was sitting pretty with a 3.27 career ERA, but time is a callous monster. Stop stealing our stuff and ripping off our features, please. […] runner up for that award goes, ironically, to Matt Cain. CLOSE X. Click "Allow" to receive push notifications and receive the most up-to-date information. It was a different game. for me the most telling stat is the run support, and the real question to be asking is why is the run support so markedly different when comparing cain and lowry–does it have to do with opposing pitchers? Here’s the scoop: Matt Cain’s 2007 weighted ball park factor was higher than Lowry’s (0.999 vs. 0.983) meaning that he pitched in ballparks where more runs are expected. But in the first three innings, Cain’s ERA was 4.13 and Lowry’s 4.03, not enough of a difference to matter. Readjusting his record once again (always relative to Lowry’s stats, assuring “fair treatment”), Cain would then have a 15-10 record. Despite constantly getting screwed by poor run support previously in his career, Cain is now a […], […] http://sportsstatsanalysis.com/2009/06/08/matt-cain/ 14 April 2012 7:02am – Images « Matt Cain Facebook Matt Cain no like your trade talk » […]. ( Log Out / 

Free shipping on many items | Browse your favorite brands | affordable prices. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky, Giants' Matt Cain plans to retire after 2017 season, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 10/17/20, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 10/16/20, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 10/15/20. Matt Cain has been one of the very best pitchers they have ever employed.

I’LL BE HONEST WITH YOU. To get the full benefits of numberFire, please sign up. Matt Cain came up in 2004. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. If he strikes out 15 in his final start, he will pass Tim Lincecum and move to second place. the concept of a fluke start seems like a reach though–like a chunk of info just meant to further equalize cain and lowry. Matt Cain is retiring, even though he was just called up and I’m still in college with a head of thick, blonde hair. And Brian Wilson—no, not of the Beach Boys—blew his only save in seven opportunities to that point on Cain’s last start. Change ). Cain’s 3-10-9 record in these close games could have been  3-6-13 if he were treated by his hitters in the same manner that Lowry was.

Explore Matt Cain's biography, personal life, family and real age. When it comes to Giants pitchers in the specialized-relief era, no one threw more innings than Matt Cain, and no one is within 300 innings of him right now. With multiple teams looking for managers, do you want to see the Giants legendary skipper back in a team’s dugout. Giants' Matt Cain plans to retire after 2017 season . Cain has a slight edge here in that 4 of his losses could have potentially been, at least, no decisions (using this statistical definition) compared to 2 for Lowry. no love for the hitters versus pitchers parks? This is not as big a difference as I had hoped, but might account for a couple close wins in Lowry’s favor, or conversely a couple close losses or no decisions for Cain. So errors are not the primary culprit of Cain’s woes. Furthermore, looking at Cain’s gamelog, there is only one game in which unearned runs had a direct impact on the outcome of the game (he got a loss instead of a likely no-decision). If you think the last five seasons have been rough for you, imagine what it was like for Cain, who had never failed or been injured at any level of baseball in his 28 years of life, and then suddenly couldn’t succeed or stay healthy. He played with a baseball that was made out of rocks and bamboo. In these games, Cain had a 3-10 record (with 9 no-decisions) versus a 5-5 record (4 ND) for Lowry. 0 of 5.

And furthermore, Cain pitched 9 more quality starts than Lowry, and has a higher percentage of quality starts: 68% vs. 50% for Lowry.

If you don’t care about WAR, well, I get it. While looking at those stats, I came across something interesting: The Giants’ bullpen did not blow a  single one of Lowry’s potential wins, but blew 5 of Cain’s. There are many more statistics out there to judge pitchers on, and win-loss records have proven to be misleading in more cases that just Matt Cain’s in 2007. You ARE a comment machine…the ball park idea is good. Nothing but bad luck for Cain. ( Log Out /  Matt Cain: Five Reasons the Giants' Number Two is MLB's Most Underrated Pitcher. Looking more closely at these blown saves, in 3 of those five, the reliever that blew the save pitched the night before, possibly affecting his ability to assure Cain a win. I define a “fluke start” as an outing where an opposing pitcher with a season ERA over 5.00 allows 2 runs or less in an outing of 5 or more innings stealing a potential “easy win” from either pitcher in question.

Pitchers who don’t go deep into ballgames sometimes lose out on win opportunities, but Cainwent a solid 6 1/3 innings per start, and Lowry a nearly-equal 6 innings on average. In reviewing these masses of stats, one can argue that unfortunate pitching matchups, a bullpen with a Cain-grudge, and untimely Giants hitting had something to do with Cain’s sub-par record and his team’s lack of offensive production. THIS COULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER. The NL leader in wins this season would be Matt Cain, of course…among a few others. In fact, the Giants scored over 4.5 runs when Bonds got at least 3 plate appearances, but only managed about 3.2 runs per game when he didn’t. However, Cain went just 4-10-7 (W-L-ND) with Bonds’ bat helping him, and 3-6-2 without the slugger. Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry are first and second, respectively, and that caveat about old-timey pitchers throwing more innings applies here. This addresses the opposing pitchers query: “My next step was to look at opposing starting pitcher’s ERAs in each of Cain and Lowry’s matchups during the season. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. This does nothing to clear up the run support question! Matt Cain has been one of … Analysis and Other Interesting Sports Stories. His ERA rank doesn’t mean a whole bunch to me, in other words. To put things in perspective, Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, from the same division, averaged between 6 1/3 and 6 2/3 innings per start (6.56), and finished the 2007 season with a record of 19-6. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. This would show how many times each pitcher took a loss partly because of badly-timed run support. The difference in wins is easily covered by the blown saves discussed above, but it’s hard to ignore the disparity in “close losses.” So many close losses and no-decisions for Cain indicate that some timely runs could have significantly improved his record much more so than Lowry’s record.

And it’s just one piece that helps us appreciate the tremendous career of Matt Cain.
The Giants got some good things from the veteran right-hander. We have stats. The Padres weren’t hitting so hotly either scoring just .25 more runs/game than the Giants). This stat was partially accounted for in the paragraph about poorly-timed runs. Matt Cain SP, San Francisco Giants SF. Why is Cain’s record so bad? Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Cain’s runs against average is very good, better than his 7-16 record would indicate, and better than Lowry’s. So possibly Cain was the victim of unlucky “Bonds-timing.” Bonds got to the plate at least 3 times in just 21 of Cain’s 32 starts, or roughly two-thirds. I blame the time monster and entropy, which will claim us all. Case closed.

First of all, the obvious answer is that he received very little run support, about 3.1 runs per 9 innings. Matt Cain’s career with the Giants, by the numbers. You did not need the statistics to bear this out. Matt Cain was, as mentioned above, paradoxically 7-16 in 32 starts in 2007 with an impressive runs against per 9 innings of 3.78 (this includes unearned runs as well, giving us an idea of exactly how many runs crossed the plate on his watch). Intuitively, Lowry got more run support, and therefore he had a better record.

Madison Bumgarner came up in 2010. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. The Giants tended to score more runs when Barry Bonds was in the starting lineup.

It turns out he was pretty good, everyone. Using his teammate, Noah Lowry, for comparison, we can observe the unfair treatment of Cain. ( Log Out /  (He was 10 times as valuable as Barry Zito, if you can believe it!). Note that I’m using San Francisco Giants because the turn-of-the-century stats annoy me. Whitepages people search is the most trusted directory. ... We've Located Matt Cain! Weather info Powered by Dark Sky, © 2009-2020 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. The statistics bear this out. Wilson’s season ERA before that outing was 0.84 in 33 1/3 innings. Ran the numbers on this a few times, but it seems to check out. Eight straight seasons with 30 starts or more was a beautiful thing. Looking to see if opposing pitchers outperformed their own abilities turned in some interesting data.

My next step was to look at the opposing starting pitcher’s ERAs in each of Cain and Lowry’s matchups during the season.

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